A Fine Line Between Clever and Stupid

Walid Phares thinks Assad may be smarter than we think:

Why would Syria, which is in trouble in Lebanon and under pressure because of its role in Iraq, want this additional "problem" with the Israelis? Isn't this yet another miscalculation? Possibly: But the Baathist regime needs to heat up the conflict with Israel so that the nature of its confrontation in Lebanon with an increasingly united opposition of Christians, Druze, and Sunnis (and some moderate Shiites) can change. This post-assassination unity is a lethal threat to Syria's interests in Lebanon. The regime cannot afford to withdraw from the country it has occupied for decades. Bashar Assad was offered a way out several times by the U.S. since 2002 but he continues refusing to relinquish control. With a U.N. resolution pending, and a vigorous Lebanese diaspora putting pressure worldwide, Syria's Baath is in real trouble in Lebanon. Hence, they are now using the tools at their disposal: the jihadist organizations. By striking Israel, they aim to force it to retaliate in a limited way, which will give Hezbollah the pro-Syrian regime in Beirut an opportunity to crush the opposition. Will they be successful?

I don't buy it. I think Assad quite simply overestimated both his ability to take out Hariri without Syrian fingerprints on the assassination and his own control of Lebanon.

Assad's clearly attempting to shore up his own rule in Syria by appearing strong in the face of continual setbacks in the region. His grip on power is contingent upon the fear his underlings have of him. Once that fear is gone, so is he.