Vox Blogoli 2.2: Does the Senate GOP Go McClellan or Grant When the Dems Go Gingrich?
Hostilities are set to break out once more in the Senate over judicial appointments. The Blogfather asks us to read the tea leaves and estimate which way the GOP wind will blow.
My prediction is counter-intuitive: the weak-kneed GOP Senate Majority will stand firm.
Here's why:
1. The battle over Arlen Specter's chairmanship made crystal clear that the GOP rank-and-file are evaluating Senate success for this term strictly on how quickly the Senate confirms Bush appointments. Senators need lots of money for reelection. The third of the body up for reelection next year will be very sensitive to their respective party bases. This is a red-meat issue for both parties.
2. The looming Supreme Court vacancies afford the chance to lock in the Republican realignment of the past 10 years. This is the Gettysburg of the Red/Blue Political War. If the Democrats run out the clock so that a Democrat administration in 2008 or 2012 gets to pack the Court, the GOP majority will be a thing of the past. The Dems know this; the GOP is learning this.
3. The public is with the Republicans on this one. Obstructionism has not played well---look at the continued erosion of the Democrat Senate seats in an election cycle where they should have gained. Momentum is swinging right on the Court and the American public is reexamining former shibboleths such as abortion-on-demand and affirmative action. The liberal wing of the GOP---Specter, Christine Todd Whitman, Olympia Snowe, Lincoln Chafee, etc---are losing power daily.
4. The fear of Specter's wrath is overblown. He's a lame duck, and now he's got serious health problems. Arlen Specter simply does not have the wherewithal to scuttle progress in the Republican caucus over the next year.
5. The MSM is dead. The Democratic Party died by the time of Reagan's inauguration; the MSM provided life support. Now that life support has been unplugged. The last hurrah was the Kerry campaign in '04; the fact that the full power of the MSM was brought to bear nakedly in support of the Democratic candidate and he still lost indicates that the Hair Helmet Hamas isn't a game-changer anymore.
6. Bill Frist aims higher. If he wants to have a future in the GOP, he's on tap to deliver on judicial appointments. He wants that future.
7. Rick Santorum will be all over this. He's looking to repair his conservative rep after the Specter/Toomey debacle.
8. McCain needs the GOP. He wants to run in '08, and anyone who thinks he'll be on a non-party ticket wasn't paying attention in '04.
All signs point to the GOP getting real serious, real fast on this issue.
And not a moment too soon.
My prediction is counter-intuitive: the weak-kneed GOP Senate Majority will stand firm.
Here's why:
1. The battle over Arlen Specter's chairmanship made crystal clear that the GOP rank-and-file are evaluating Senate success for this term strictly on how quickly the Senate confirms Bush appointments. Senators need lots of money for reelection. The third of the body up for reelection next year will be very sensitive to their respective party bases. This is a red-meat issue for both parties.
2. The looming Supreme Court vacancies afford the chance to lock in the Republican realignment of the past 10 years. This is the Gettysburg of the Red/Blue Political War. If the Democrats run out the clock so that a Democrat administration in 2008 or 2012 gets to pack the Court, the GOP majority will be a thing of the past. The Dems know this; the GOP is learning this.
3. The public is with the Republicans on this one. Obstructionism has not played well---look at the continued erosion of the Democrat Senate seats in an election cycle where they should have gained. Momentum is swinging right on the Court and the American public is reexamining former shibboleths such as abortion-on-demand and affirmative action. The liberal wing of the GOP---Specter, Christine Todd Whitman, Olympia Snowe, Lincoln Chafee, etc---are losing power daily.
4. The fear of Specter's wrath is overblown. He's a lame duck, and now he's got serious health problems. Arlen Specter simply does not have the wherewithal to scuttle progress in the Republican caucus over the next year.
5. The MSM is dead. The Democratic Party died by the time of Reagan's inauguration; the MSM provided life support. Now that life support has been unplugged. The last hurrah was the Kerry campaign in '04; the fact that the full power of the MSM was brought to bear nakedly in support of the Democratic candidate and he still lost indicates that the Hair Helmet Hamas isn't a game-changer anymore.
6. Bill Frist aims higher. If he wants to have a future in the GOP, he's on tap to deliver on judicial appointments. He wants that future.
7. Rick Santorum will be all over this. He's looking to repair his conservative rep after the Specter/Toomey debacle.
8. McCain needs the GOP. He wants to run in '08, and anyone who thinks he'll be on a non-party ticket wasn't paying attention in '04.
All signs point to the GOP getting real serious, real fast on this issue.
And not a moment too soon.
3 Comments:
I've not visited your blog before, and linked from HH. Your analysis is extremely well reasoned, and we can only hope, correct. I would love to see the "Dims" steamrollered on this issue, as it sends a strong message for all other issues.
Rosey Scenario. Your reasoning seems good. It's just that I feel let down by the Republican leadership for so long, its hard to believe they will stand firm.
"Hair Helmet Hamas"...Oh man, I was rolling on the floor with laughter at that one!
Ralph said your prediction may be rosey. Sadly, I admit he has a point, having been let down before.
Yet, the GOP activists and voters may prove to be the critical, spine strengthing factor the Senate GOP needs. Thus, I would add to your analysis the desire of Red State voters to break free of the yoke of judicial activism.
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