Middle East Showdown
March will be a huge month in determining the future of the Middle East.
We have a Syria-Iran bloc formed in opposition to the United States. We have the Iranian nuclear program coming to fruition, probably with aid from North Korea, possibly with assistance from Russia. We have the tenuous ceasefire between the Israelis and the Palestinians. We have Syria's terrorist acts in Lebanon. We have Moammar Qadafi's efforts toward detente with the U.S. We have continued Saudi waffling in the War on Terror. We have continued unrest in Iran.
U.S. gains in the region are easy to see on a map. Iraq, once a stalwart home to terrorists (to anyone who recognizes Abu Nidal and Abu Abbas as terrorists, at least), is now the frontline in the battle against international Islamic terror groups. Afghanistan, home to al Qaeda pre-9/11, is now vying with Pakistan to be the epicenter in the hunt for Osama bin Laden. The Syria-Iran axis is made less tenable by the removal of Iraq from the Axis of Evil. Whereas the Israelis and Americans would have been hard-pressed to swiftly deal with Iraq or Syria before the Iraq War, we now have the bulk of our armed forces within easy striking distance.
The Iranians, Syrians, and Russians know the stakes, which is why they are acting as they are. They need to undermine the building of a democratic, Western-allied state in Iraq. Part of this involves dangling the prospect of an oil pipeline and Kurdish containment to the Turks, who are being pushed away from the U.S. and Britain already by the French and Germans and their bogus claims of consideration for Turkey within the EU. Weakening America's historically strong relations with Turkey must continue if U.S. interests in the region are to be thwarted.
Likewise, the Russians, Syrians, and Iranians must insert a wedge between the Iraqi people and the government it is about to form, or between that government and the Coalition. They cannot afford to have a stable, prosperous, pro-Western regime in the heart of the Middle East. Neither can the Saudis, who fear such a nation would undermine the House of Saud's grip on power while simultaneously strengthening the hand of the Wahabbists within the country.
For the U.S. and its Coalition allies, the course is likewise clear. Our gains in Iraq must be consolidated and reinforced while the Ba'athist regime in Syria and the mullahs' regime in Iran must be undermined and destroyed, both before the Iranians develop a deliverable nuclear weapon.
In retrospect, 2005 will look an awful lot like 1942. While the outcome remains in doubt, all the players are now on the stage and engaged.
We have a Syria-Iran bloc formed in opposition to the United States. We have the Iranian nuclear program coming to fruition, probably with aid from North Korea, possibly with assistance from Russia. We have the tenuous ceasefire between the Israelis and the Palestinians. We have Syria's terrorist acts in Lebanon. We have Moammar Qadafi's efforts toward detente with the U.S. We have continued Saudi waffling in the War on Terror. We have continued unrest in Iran.
U.S. gains in the region are easy to see on a map. Iraq, once a stalwart home to terrorists (to anyone who recognizes Abu Nidal and Abu Abbas as terrorists, at least), is now the frontline in the battle against international Islamic terror groups. Afghanistan, home to al Qaeda pre-9/11, is now vying with Pakistan to be the epicenter in the hunt for Osama bin Laden. The Syria-Iran axis is made less tenable by the removal of Iraq from the Axis of Evil. Whereas the Israelis and Americans would have been hard-pressed to swiftly deal with Iraq or Syria before the Iraq War, we now have the bulk of our armed forces within easy striking distance.
The Iranians, Syrians, and Russians know the stakes, which is why they are acting as they are. They need to undermine the building of a democratic, Western-allied state in Iraq. Part of this involves dangling the prospect of an oil pipeline and Kurdish containment to the Turks, who are being pushed away from the U.S. and Britain already by the French and Germans and their bogus claims of consideration for Turkey within the EU. Weakening America's historically strong relations with Turkey must continue if U.S. interests in the region are to be thwarted.
Likewise, the Russians, Syrians, and Iranians must insert a wedge between the Iraqi people and the government it is about to form, or between that government and the Coalition. They cannot afford to have a stable, prosperous, pro-Western regime in the heart of the Middle East. Neither can the Saudis, who fear such a nation would undermine the House of Saud's grip on power while simultaneously strengthening the hand of the Wahabbists within the country.
For the U.S. and its Coalition allies, the course is likewise clear. Our gains in Iraq must be consolidated and reinforced while the Ba'athist regime in Syria and the mullahs' regime in Iran must be undermined and destroyed, both before the Iranians develop a deliverable nuclear weapon.
In retrospect, 2005 will look an awful lot like 1942. While the outcome remains in doubt, all the players are now on the stage and engaged.
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